Oregon Unemployment Rate Moves Back Above Seven Percent

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 6.8 percent in July to 7.4 percent in August, marking the first time the state’s rate has been above 7 percent since March, when the rate was 7.2 percent.  This increase followed the April through July period, when the rate ranged between 6.7 percent and 6.9 percent.  The last time the unemployment rate was above 7.4 percent was January 2004 when the rate was 7.7 percent.
 
Seasonally adjusted payroll employment declined by 900 jobs in August, after an upwardly revised gain of 2,000 jobs in July. Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

 total nonfarm payroll employment performed below expectations in August.  Trade, transportation, and utilities added 500 jobs for the month, when a gain of 1,500 would be the normal seasonal change for August.  Every other major industry performed close to its normal seasonal trend for the month.  Government jobs were cut back by 1,700, which was 500 larger than the normal reduction for the month.  However, construction added 2,200 jobs, which was 300 more than the typical August gain.  Also, professional and business services gained 2,400 jobs, while a gain of only 1,800 would have been the norm.
 
Trade, transportation, and utilities cut jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis by 1,000 in August after a decline of 2,000 in July.  These slippages in growth followed solid gains during the first half of the year, when seasonally adjusted employment grew by 8,500.  Over the past 12 months, employment growth in both wholesale trade and retail trade has been moderate, with gains of close to one percent in each industry.  In August, the largest employment swing was felt in building material and garden supply stores, which shed 1,000 from their payrolls.
 
Government cut 1,700 jobs in August as both state government education (-600 jobs) and local government education (-900) reached the low point of their summer break period.  Meanwhile, federal government shed 300 jobs from July’s high of 32,200 to the August figure of 31,900.  Federal government employment is typically at its peak in July and August as agencies that deal with forestry and agricultural matters hire seasonal workers.  Over the past 10 years, federal government employment in rarely has exceeded 32,000; only during the 2000 decennial census has federal government employment been substantially above that level.
 
Construction has been one of the leading economic engines in this year.  The industry gained 2,200 jobs in August to reach a level of 86,600, and is now nearly five percent above its level of last August.  For the month, growth was noted in all of its published component industries.
 
Professional and business services has been one of the key beneficiaries during economic recovery.  This sector, which accounts for one in nine payroll jobs, has grown by five percent over the past year.  In August, employment services grew by 1,700 to a level of 39,800 jobs.  The industry reached its highest level in nearly two years, as it wrapped up its busy summer season.  Many other industries within professional and business services have expanded substantially over the past 12 months, including business support services , services to buildings and dwellings, management of companies and enterprises, and legal services.
 
Unemployment (Household Survey Data) seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 6.8 percent in July to 7.4 percent in August.  This followed a four-month period during which the unemployment rate was between 6.7 percent and 6.9 percent.  Prior to that time, unemployment rate had been on a steep declining trend from the peak of 8.7 percent in June and July 2003 to the low point of 6.7 percent in April.
 
In August, 127,846 Oregonians were unemployed compared to 122,505 in July.  However, over the past year, the number of unemployed has dropped substantially, as there were 147,090 Oregonians unemployed in August 2003. At the national level, the unemployment rate dropped from 5.5 percent in July to 5.4 percent in August.  Thus the unemployment rate has dropped nearly a full percentage point since reaching a recent peak of 6.3 percent in June 2003. The Oregon Employment Department will release statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data for September 2004 at Thursday, October 14, 2004

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